10/7/2023 0 Comments Google trends election 2016There is also “strong correlation between potential voters’ searches and election results” in the national elections in Greece and Spain and with the German elections of 2005, 2009, and 2013. The paper said Google Trends “has predictive capacity in short periods of time and even under a high-volatility scenario such as the Greek referendum in 2015 on the approval or rejection of conditional financial aid from the European Union.” (From Google Trends as a Predictor of Presidential Elections.) Google Trends predicted the winners of these US Presidential elections. The studies have one common theme, “that the volume of keywords searched on the internet or contained in chats on social networks such as Twitter are revealing the current and future thinking of a significant amount of the population.” PREDICTION. The paper by the Universidad Rey Juan Carlo researchers said there have been many studies on the impact of digital media on campaigns. That study showed that “data generated on digital channels reflects citizens’ attitudes and intentions, and therefore have an explanatory and predictive nature.” “Big data in the form of Google search has emerged as the most powerful predictor of political behavior compared with other aggregate measures,” the paper said, quoting another study, “Using Big Data Versus Alternative Measures of Aggregate Data to Predict the US 2016 Presidential Election.” Data scientist Wilson Chua said in explaining their social media election analytics that tracking using big data such as search requests is ahead of polling results because “sentiment predicts future preference.” He would take the lead in SWS’ April release. In the same month, the Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed him behind Grace Poe, Jejomar Binay, and Mar Roxas. Duterte, for example, broke away from the pack when it came to search interests only in March 2016. Google has published a dedicated Google Trends page for the Philippine elections.Ī review of Google Trends in the months leading up to both the 20 presidential elections shows that it indeed predicted the victory of the late President Benigno Aquino III and President Rodrigo Duterte. Google Trends and its viability in predicting electoral outcomes generated discussions and online buzz in the Philippines when tracking showed that Vice President Leni Robredo generated higher search interest than traditional survey leader Ferdinand Marcos Jr. “This research confirms that the information available on the web and that shows citizens’ concerns and interests is a reliable source for predicting voting intention,” according to the research by Camilo Prado-Román, Raúl Gómez-Martínez, and Carmen Orden-Cruz of the Universidad Rey Juan Carlo. Its tracking of search interests for presidential candidates, according to the paper “ Google Trends as a Predictor of Presidential Elections,” are “accurate predictors of election outcomes.” Google Trends is a portal that allows people to explore large data on search requests. Except for former President Donald Trump’s loss in 2020, Google Trends predicted the winners of the previous four presidential elections in the United States and the past six in Canada since the company’s search data were made available in 2004. Google Trends predicted the winners of the past two presidential elections in the Philippines.
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